Indian self-interest and the Ukraine crisis.

All war is horrible. However, from a practical perspective, given how none of this is in our control, as Indians, we only need to worry about two things: (1) The price of oil in the short- and medium-term because on it depends inflation, and on it unemployment, and on it social unrest in India, and (2) the message China (and others like them who have territorial ambitions) will take away from this, because if they think they can get away with literal murder, the world’s too small a stage, and we are all too close for comfort to avoid becoming unwilling participants in their macabre dance.

The rest is only us seething in righteous indignation and trending hashtags about stuff our generation has never had to deal with, having been born so long after WWII, and not realising that this indeed is how the world has been for as long as history was written, and that the recent explosion (pandemic?) of peace following the Pax Americana enforced on this planet since the dissolution of USSR in 1990s was an aberration, a mere blip in the violent history of humankind, where strong men took what they wanted until other strong men beat them and took what they wanted, and on and on went the cycle.

All frivolous talk of mediating in the conflict, siding with Russia or the USA, and unnecessary and irrelevant advice as to what Ukraine should do or how NATO must respond, can happen in parallel, whether by complete amateurs like us (or even some experts) on social media, or via the Foreign Ministry or the PMO, who may put out press releases for optics. None of that matters.

We need to start focusing on India, Indians, and our requirements and interests at least in the short-term if we have to have any hope of riding out this completely unnecessary crisis. And we should view all political statements made by our ‘leaders’, regardless of from which camp, from the lens of self-interest rather than speculate how they will sound on the world stage. Our leaders, in the meanwhile, must work hard to stay focused on the two areas we need to keep our eyes firmly fixed on, and not let distractions get in the way.

TL;DR: Let us worry about how to mitigate the oil-fuelled inflation and the aftermaths of it, and about China in the North and the East, both of which are issues literally at our door now. We have our hands full. The world can wait.

P.S: Sorry if this sounds cynical, but that is how it is. We need to wear our masks before helping others. That’s just common sense.