Do you know how housing societies form cartels against housemaids to pay them below minimum wage by colluding to fix prices that are exploitative? Well, that’s the same mentality of this government. No wonder the same kind of people are in love with it.
You see, in a thriving economy, the army should have to fight to recruit and would need to make appeals to glamour and adventure in order to make up its quotas. It did this back when young men had better options and the military’s officer cadre started falling behind as a career option, ending up in an officer deficit that plagues all three arms of service to date.
However, in a depressive economy like now, when the recruitment for ORs (or Agniveers, as they’d be called now) does start, the hopefuls will be filled with overqualified men and women, all competing for a low-paying, low-prospects, low-benefits job that is risky both to life & limb, and to careers. The government will celebrate and tom-tom this as a success and acceptance of their ‘scheme’ by the public and the people of India.
But think about it. Do you believe the youth who crowd the recruitment centres will be the uneducated and illiterate ones with no job prospects and nothing to show for education? Do you believe that the 4-year TOD will give them something that’s way above their station and prepare them for life they could not have otherwise had as uneducated young men and women in a growing economy? You’re mistaken, and you know it. There’d be many graduates and post-graduates (given the age relaxation this year). There’ll be engineers and lawyers. There’ll be people who should have found work for their hands and minds in what is continuously touted as the ‘world’s fastest-growing economy’ without applying for and competing to get a low-paying, high-risk, short-term job. But there’ll be plenty of desperate people who’ll take anything. As will anyone.
Be aware that the lining up of millions of young, unemployed men to join the Agniveers in another month’s time isn’t an indicator of the scheme’s success or its wide acceptance by the public. It is that of the desperate times this regime has brought upon us, the youngest population in the world.
This, by the way, is your demographic dividend. Squandered.
This government has acted just like the privileged folk in a housing society WhatsApp group, cartelising to fix the housemaids’ prices (and sometimes, housemaids themselves, if one of them falls out of line) by closing down all alternate income avenues, creating a new one, and keeping it cheap, all the while claiming that no one is being forced to work even as it is creating a situation where the only recourse for a large swathe of youth is to give up and give in to fait accompli and go along with whatever little they can get. At least, 4 years are better than no years.
Not for officers though. Officers get to serve till they are falling off their chairs at 58, even 60 or 62 if they find favour with the powers that be. Yet.
Their turn will come too. Long ago, I had predicted that eventually, this government will reach for the pensions of the retired military men and women. And then, all the fauji bhakts would wonder why them and would be confused as to what they did wrong. They’ll end up looking like idiots whose bread has been snatched from their mouths in broad daylight while they were distracted, busy pointing and laughing at others’ miseries.
I predict that the officers’ pensions will be slashed, severely curtailed, or (partly) cancelled. Soon. Whether before 2024 or immediately after is difficult to say. But it will happen. Inevitably. Because this nation is being driven to bankruptcy. In a hurry.
At that time, the pompous brass that is justifying Agnipath, and railing against ‘these entitled young people’ as they sip their single malts will be shocked by the eruption of civilian jubilation over the ‘masterstroke’ and also wonder how ‘true patriots’ and nationalists who should be (and till yesterday, were) concerned about the ‘soldier standing in Siachen’ can so quickly become so anti-army. Without realising that this was a natural progression down the slippery slope they were cheering right till the time it was them who lost footing.
Funny thing though: No one will blame Modi.
