Donald Trump has once again taken centre stage, unveiling his latest act in economic theatre: the so-called “Reciprocal Tariffs.” To sell this spectacle, he brandished a dramatic chart. Bold. Colourful. And utterly nonsensical.
At first glance, it resembles one of those corporate PowerPoint presentations by the boss where everyone nods, too polite to question whether any of it actually makes sense. But scratch the surface, and it unravels faster than a Cybertruck in a mild downpour.
Consider just a few entries:
- Tariffs on Réunion, which is literally a part of France. What next? A separate tariff for Nalasopara from the one for India?
- Ecuador, is labelled a “currency manipulator”, even though it literally uses the US dollar as currency!
- Heard and McDonald Islands, uninhabited, except for Penguins, penalised with a 10% tariff.
- Russia, nowhere on the list. Because friends don’t tariff friends. Especially the ones who help with elections, right?
And then, there’s India.
Trump’s chart claims India imposes a 52% tariff on US goods. So in the name of “reciprocity”, the US will now slap a flat “discounted” 26% (because apparently, Modi is a great friend) tariff on everything we send over. From sarees and semiconductors to surgical gloves and Alphonso mangoes.
How was this 52% figure calculated? Not from WTO data. Not from bilateral trade schedules. Not from any real understanding of trade policy. They simply took the trade deficit between the US and each country, divided it by that country’s exports to the US, and called it a day. That’s it. No economic method, no credibility. This is not policy. This is what happens when someone yells at Excel to win Ohio.
The Kindleberger Spiral: A History Lesson Ignored.
Before we go further, let’s pause and look back. In the 1930s, the world made a spectacular mess of trade policy. The United States passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, trying to protect domestic industries. Other countries retaliated. In no time, world trade collapsed by 65%. The Great Depression got greater (and not in a good way). And before long, we had tanks rolling across borders.
Economists now call this the Kindleberger Spiral. A cautionary tale for anyone who thinks tit-for-tat trade wars are harmless. Unfortunately, history classes weren’t compulsory in Trump’s school of “Entire Economics”.
Liberation Day: A Holiday No One Asked For.
To cap it all, Trump declared April 2 as “Liberation Day”. Liberation from what, exactly? Cheaper imports? Empirical reality? Mutual respect? Reason?
The announcement, falling just one day after April Fool’s, feels like a bad joke that’s been given press credentials. And it echoes another two-and-a-half-word promise closer to home — Achhe Din. Bold slogans. Empty hands. Empty pockets. To mirror the empty minds of those who naively trusted their leaders.
India’s Response: A Mixed Bag With a Live Grenade Inside.
India’s official response?
It’s a mixed bag, not a setback.
Right. Because a 30 billion dollar blow to critical sectors like electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and gems is apparently just another treat in our diplomatic hamper. Sure. More like putting your hand into the Diwali basket and pulling out a live grenade instead of soan-papdi. And then calling it a dhamakedar surprise.
And we’re smiling politely, pretending it’s all just a mildly unpleasant surprise. That isn’t strategy. That’s denial. And no amount of spin turns a slap into a handshake.
Denial: Our Favourite Foreign Policy Tool.
We’ve done this before. Of course.
On 15 June 2020, Chinese troops crossed into Ladakh, killed Indian soldiers, and occupied territory. And four days later, our Prime Minister told the nation:
ना कोई घुसा है, ना ही कोई घुसाया है.
“No one entered. No one is occupying our land.”
Yeah, OK then. Nothing to see here. Move along, folks.
2025. Déjà vu. And here we are. Again. A major economy has just targeted India with an across-the-board tariff hike. And we’ve responded with surrender, claiming that the white rag we are waving for them to stop shooting is actually beige.
Of course, we have an officially stated policy of
What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with the bigger economy?
So, no surprises, to be honest.
The truth is that America is squeezing us. Rudely. Aggressively. Publicly. And we are gaslighting ourselves. Pretending that denial is diplomacy. That silence is strength. That the sensation in our testicles from Trump’s little hands around them is not pain but, in fact, pleasure.
Indeed, if denial were strength, we’d be a superpower by now. Some say we already are.
In Conclusion.
Trade is not just about goods. It’s about peace. Countries that trade, talk. Countries that don’t, fight.
The WTO today feels more like the League of Nations in 1932. Toothless. Talking. Ineffective.
We are back in a world where nations take swings at one another in the name of domestic pride. We’ve seen this movie before. More than once. It doesn’t end well. For anyone.
So sure. Go ahead. Praise Trump for his “toughness.”
Just don’t forget who ends up paying the price.
Spoiler alert: it’s not him.
