Image source: https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-OA087_MAO_M_20160513111547.jpg
China is regressing. Their anointment of Xi as Mao’s (and Deng’s) equal in an orchestrated plenum (he shall soon approach almost Kim Jong-un-like powers, and accumulate myths along the same lines), their peacocking of military strength with their neighbours (and superpowers), their crackdown on tech and tech giants (some of which are world leaders in their fields), their running billionaires and wealth creators underground, their tightening their grip on media, their attempting to change culture by design (recently, ‘effeminate’ men were banned from appearing on tv and chldren’s game-playing time was curbed by fiat), their outright banning crypto (another field in which the Chinese were leaders), their unscientific and untenable zero-Covid approach (please read up on this ridiculous insistence on their part that they shall remain closed until the virus is permanently eliminated), their shameless and open oppression of Uighurs in Xinjiang and Tibetians in Tibet (in face of worldwide condemnation by international media and most sane folk), their drunken macho talk about retaking Taiwan by force, their crushing of the remnants of democracy in Hong Kong by going back on their own word, their extremely expensive (in more ways than just money), unnecessary, and long-shot vanity project of the Belt & Road Initiative, their rubbing almost every government (and indeed peoples) they have interacted with the wrong way, their indiscriminate use of their sovereign wealth to create debt traps for smaller economies with a view to acquire strategic assets, their complete disdain for international law or even the international system and order, their arbitrariness in compliance with agreements and pacts they have themselves signed up for, their complete and total untrustworthiness as partners (whether trading, military, or political), amongst other numerous small and large acts demonstrate that they are on a dangerous track.
Specifically, the kind of fake patriotism and self-congratulatory attitude to life and to the world in general that is winning over practicality and realistic geopolitics and hard-nosed economics in China is fraught with the danger of its society slipping and falling down a rabbit hole which may take generations to escape out of once again.
My contention is that while China looks like a potential winner right now, in the medium and long run, China will lose. If I had money on China because of what I saw in the early 2000s, which I don’t, I’d start worrying.
I can see many of my friends thinking that the 21st century is China’s. They point to data. And yes, data does show China to be far ahead in accelerating towards a brighter future than most other countries and definitely catching up with, and sometimes surpassing, their rival, USA. But remember that data, by definition, shows the past. Not the future. At most, it points to a trend, with caveats of ‘all things being equal…’, or ‘if it proceeds on the same lines…’, and so on. But, recent developments show that all things are not being equal, and things are not proceeding on the same lines. China is closing down and looking inwards. It is obsessed with self-image and less concerned about actual image. It seems to think it can control everything. And what it cannot control, it can ignore, at best. Or destroy, at worst. That is not a good sign.
This, unfortunately, isn’t something we have not seen that civilisation do in the past. Today’s China has started to look like moving towards the kind of China that once demanded that Admiral Zheng He, who is said (apocryphally) to have circumnavigated the globe in the 15th century with his vast ships burn his fleet because there was nothing the world could teach China.
This is something we Indians have seen. And experienced.
Mark my words: China is in for a rough ride. This could be, if we are smart and our leaders recognise this opportunity and grab it with both their hands (provided that their hands are free to do this and not reaching into our pockets at that time), our time to finally shine. We have hit rock bottom and the only way to go is up. Democracy and economic capitalism with a soft touch of humanity, egalitarianism, and social liberalism can provide an alternative to dictatorial top-down one-party rule that decides on everything from the number of children one can have to what faith one can practice. We can show that freedom and democracy can conquer dogma and xenophobia.
India can be the next powerhouse, economic, military, and political, to emerge from this region. Provided we can let go of pettiness. Provided we can replace self-destructive hate with self-actuating love. Provided we remember our founding principles of justice, liberty, equality, and fraternity. Provided we revert to our secular credentials and our syncretic roots. Provided we work hard at rediscovering, and bringing to reality, the original idea of India as envisaged by our founding fathers, and as fought for with the blood, sweat, and tears of our freedom fighters, soldiers, farmers, teachers, workers, scientists, entrepreneurs, bureaucrats, leaders, and women & men everywhere in this vast, diverse, and beautiful country which has been a melting pot of civilisations from the world over for millennia. Provided we once again dream of that India together. Provided we want to.
And there, my friends, lies the rub.
